MARKET STATUS (HEALTH)

HIGH RISK

Market Health

44.9 /100

▲ 13.5 vs last week

Risk level HIGH

Data as of 2026-07-03 09:38 UTC

QUICK OVERVIEW

Healthy – Normal market conditions.

Moderate – Heightened alertness.

High risk – Rising risk of a larger move.

Alarm – Crash conditions are present.

Updated automatically, typically hourly.

CURRENT OUTLOOK

⚠ Downside risk is elevated.

Historical conditions associated with larger declines are currently present. Increased caution is advised.

Beta system. Not financial advice.

BTC/EUR · LAST 40 DAYS (HOURLY)

◆ WATCH / ★ FIRE = when the alert fired · shaded band = predicted decline window

LATEST ALERTS

Date (UTC)	Type	Confirmed by	Reason / cause	Predicted window	Estimated DD	Realized DD
27 May 2026 19:30	WATCH	Layer 1 (BTC)	external shock	day 5–15 (median ~9)	at least -10%	-10% hit on day ~6 ✓ within predicted window · low -20.7%
17 Jun 2026 14:42	FIRE	Layer 2 (multi-coin)	cascading failure (contagion)	day 5–30 (median ~14)	-10% to -35%	Pending

◆ WHAT IS AN ALERT? WATCH: conditions are deteriorating. Elevated chance of a decline. FIRE: strong signal, confirmed on layer 2 (multi-coin). Prepare and manage risk.

★ PREDICTED WINDOW The period in which the decline is most likely to occur, based on historical patterns for this signal type.

▬ DRAWDOWN (DD) Estimated and realized price decline within the indicated period. Realized DD is measured afterwards.

HEALTH SCORE OVER TIME (LAST 26 WEEKS)

Beta system under live evaluation. Signals are experimental. Nothing on this page is financial advice.

ABOUT THE SYSTEM

The BTC Market Health Monitor is a market-regime detection system. It deliberately uses none of the indicators found in conventional tools: no technical analysis, no sentiment scores, no chart patterns. Instead it reads the market's underlying structure directly to identify regimes historically associated with elevated downside risk.

🕑 Updated automatically · TEST SYSTEM

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